Has the inflation process changed?

Has the Federal Reserve's Inflation Target Changed?

We confront a variety of medium-scale regime-switching DSGE models against U.S. macroeconomic time series data. Our goal is to employ a uni ed Bayesian framework for these models to test empirical evidence of regime changes in the Federal Reserve's in ation target in the post-war period when heteroscedastic shock disturbances are properly taken into account.

Has the Volatility of U.S. Inflation Changed and How?

The local level model with stochastic volatility, recently proposed for U.S. by Stock and Watson (Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast?, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Supplement to Vol. 39, No. 1, February 2007), provides a simple yet sufficiently rich framework for characterizing the evolution of the main stylized facts concerning the U.S. inflation. The model decomposes in...

Has Feminism Changed Physics?

Stuxnet: What Has Changed?

This paper considers the impact of Stuxnet on cyber-attacks and cyber-defense. It first reviews trends in cyber-weapons and how Stuxnet fits into these trends. Because Stuxnet targeted an industrial control system in order to wreak physical damage, the focus is on weapons that target systems of that type and produce physical effects. The paper then examines the impact of Stuxnet on various doma...

Has Economic Models’ Forecasting Performance for US Output Growth and Inflation Changed Over Time, and When?

We evaluate various economic models’ relative performance in forecasting future US output growth and inflation on a monthly basis. Our approach takes into account the possibility that the models’ relative performance can be varying over time. We show that the models’ relative performance has, in fact, changed dramatically over time, both for revised and realtime data, and investigate possible f...